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Prediction Markets

Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan (Polymarket)
Finance
Prediction markets
Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, Vitalik Buterin Back $45M Investment in Polymarket
The series B funding round comes during a breakout year for the crypto-based prediction market platform, and brings its total funding well over $70 million.
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan (Polymarket)
By Marc Hochstein
May 14, 2024 at 2:00 p.m. UTC
May 14, 2024
Prediction MarketsFunding RoundsPolymarketPeter ThielVitalik Buterin
NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE - OCTOBER 22: U.S. President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden participate in the final presidential debate at Belmont University on October 22, 2020 in Nashville, Tennessee. This is the last debate between the two candidates before the election on November 3. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
News Analysis
Analysis
Trump and Biden Tied on Polymarket, Diverging From Polls
Other election contracts show a 35% chance of a Republican sweep of the presidency and both houses of Congress and a 27% chance Democrats control the Senate after the election...
NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE - OCTOBER 22: U.S. President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden participate in the final presidential debate at Belmont University on October 22, 2020 in Nashville, Tennessee. This is the last debate between the two candidates before the election on November 3. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
By Sam Reynolds
May 13, 2024 at 2:10 p.m. UTC
May 13, 2024
AnalysisPrediction MarketsElection 2024
Chairman Rostin Behnam's U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposed a rule Friday to ban certain event contracts in the U.S. (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)
Policy
Regulations
U.S. CFTC Proposes Ban on Political Event Contracts
The U.S. derivatives regulator approved a proposed rule that punctuates a long-standing legal dispute between the agency and predictive markets platforms.
Chairman Rostin Behnam's U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposed a rule Friday to ban certain event contracts in the U.S. (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)
By Jesse Hamilton
May 10, 2024 at 4:11 p.m. UTC
May 10, 2024
RegulationsPrediction MarketsPredictItKalshiPolymarketCommodity Futures Trading Commission
Tesla CEO Elon Musk speaks during an event to launch the new Tesla Model X Crossover SUV on September 29, 2015 in Fremont, California. After several production delays, Elon Mush officially launched the much anticipated Tesla Model X Crossover SUV. The
Markets
Analysis
Elon Musk Will Likely Remain Tesla CEO, and Tweet Non-Stop: Prediction Markets
Also: Trump faces likely conviction, per Polymarket punters; CFTC hearing to discuss political betting ban.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk speaks during an event to launch the new Tesla Model X Crossover SUV on September 29, 2015 in Fremont, California. After several production delays, Elon Mush officially launched the much anticipated Tesla Model X Crossover SUV. The
By Sam Reynolds
May 6, 2024 at 12:34 p.m. UTC
May 6, 2024
AnalysisPrediction MarketsTeslaElon MuskDonald TrumpPolymarketKalshiCFTC
Binance ex-CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao leaves the U.S. District Court in Seattle on Nov. 21, 2023. (David Ryder/Getty Images)
Markets
Analysis
Binance's CZ Will Spend Less Than a Year in Prison, Polymarket Traders Bet
Also, the CFTC wants to bar Americans from betting on elections – even though it's already illegal in most U.S. states.
Binance ex-CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao leaves the U.S. District Court in Seattle on Nov. 21, 2023. (David Ryder/Getty Images)
By Sam Reynolds
Apr 29, 2024 at 2:15 p.m. UTC
Apr 29, 2024
AnalysisPrediction Markets
Columbia University President Minouche Shafik, left (Alex Wong/Getty Images)
Markets
Analysis
Polymarket Odds Say Columbia University President Will Keep Job
Continuing pro-Palestine protests won't lead to Minouche Shafik having a fate similar to Claudine Gay, who was recently forced to resign as Harvard's president, the prediction...
Columbia University President Minouche Shafik, left (Alex Wong/Getty Images)
By Sam Reynolds
Apr 22, 2024 at 2:23 p.m. UTC
Apr 22, 2024
AnalysisPrediction MarketsPolymarketKalshi
Taiwanese currency (Photo: sharyn morrow).
Markets
Analysis
Free Money? Polymarket Bet Pays 8.7% if China Doesn't Invade Taiwan
Betting against an invasion on the prediction market may yield almost 7x as much as Taiwan government bonds. Plus: Mideast turmoil barely changes U.S. presidential odds.
Taiwanese currency (Photo: sharyn morrow).
By Sam Reynolds
Apr 15, 2024 at 1:44 p.m. UTC
Apr 15, 2024
AnalysisPrediction MarketsChina
A C-17 Globemaster III from the 437th Air Wing, Charleston Air Force Base, S.C., air delivery pallets of water and food to Mirebalais, Haiti, Jan 21, 2010 to be distributed by the members of the United Nations. Department of Defense assets have been deployed to assist in the Haiti relief effort following a magnitude 7 earthquake that hit the city on Jan. 12, 2010. (U.S. Air Force photo/Tech. Sgt. James L. Harper Jr.)
Markets
Analysis
Which Crypto Projects Will Airdrop Next? Prediction Markets Are Placing Bets
Eigenlayer has a 66% chance of sending users free tokens by June 30, the odds on Polymarket signal. Plus: Kalshi lands a big Wall Street account.
A C-17 Globemaster III from the 437th Air Wing, Charleston Air Force Base, S.C., air delivery pallets of water and food to Mirebalais, Haiti, Jan 21, 2010 to be distributed by the members of the United Nations. Department of Defense assets have been deployed to assist in the Haiti relief effort following a magnitude 7 earthquake that hit the city on Jan. 12, 2010. (U.S. Air Force photo/Tech. Sgt. James L. Harper Jr.)
By Shaurya Malwa
Apr 8, 2024 at 1:32 p.m. UTC
Apr 8, 2024
AnalysisPrediction MarketsAirdropsPolymarket
Donald J. Trump at a rally (Gerd Altmann, modified by CoinDesk)
Markets
Analysis
Who Will Trump Pick for Veep? Polymarket Gives Tim Scott Best Odds: Prediction Markets
Plus: Free money? "Democrat wins New York" contract trades at 90 cents on the dollar.
Donald J. Trump at a rally (Gerd Altmann, modified by CoinDesk)
By Sam ReynoldsShaurya Malwa
Apr 1, 2024 at 1:16 p.m. UTC
Apr 1, 2024
AnalysisPrediction MarketsPolymarketDonald Trump
(Sam Poullain/Unsplash)
Markets
Opinion
How to Design Better On-Chain Governance
An introduction to Futarchy and combinatorial prediction markets.
(Sam Poullain/Unsplash)
By Malte Kliemann
Mar 27, 2024 at 4:22 p.m. UTC
Mar 27, 2024
OpinionCrypto Long & ShortGovernanceFutarchyPrediction Markets